Digest

What happened in each country, written from all our sources.

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Earlier digests

2026-10-17

19:00 Lebanon: Security Escalation in South, Dahieh Raid and Explosives File... IMF Cites 'Significant Progress'

South Lebanon witnessed security escalation: an interceptor missile exploded over Hanin in Bint Jbeil district, an Israeli airstrike targeted Bani Hayyan and another hit Qantara with a missile that did not explode, while the Israeli army continued combing operations inside Khiam with continuous movement of its vehicles, and Israeli bulldozers uprooted olive trees in Kafarshouba. The Lebanese Army Command announced dismantling two unexploded aerial bombs from the remnants of Israeli aggression in Kafra and Toulin and moving them to a safe location, amid warnings that the south is passing through one of its most dangerous phases.

In Beirut, a security patrol raided a medicine warehouse in the southern suburb after people tried to prevent it, then completed its mission with support from the Lebanese Army; a security source said Hezbollah demanded the patrol withdraw and considered the raid carried out without the agreed mechanism, while MP Ashraf Rifi saw the incident as possibly indicating a change in the state's treatment of Hezbollah. This coincided with a dispute over an explosives shipment seized at Dahr al-Baidar and a move to refer its file to the Judicial Council, with army deployment in Beirut and the outskirts of the southern suburb. The Public Prosecution also opened an investigation into the circumstances of the abduction of Ali al-Kiyali, known as 'Ma'raj Ural,' and his transfer from Mansourieh in Mount Lebanon to Syria; authorities requested analysis of call records to determine whether he was taken to the Syrian embassy outside Beirut and then to Damascus or directly into Syrian territory, while Damascus announced he was arrested while trying to flee across the border.

Politically, MP Hassan Fadlallah said the explosives shipment seized at Dahr al-Baidar belongs to Hezbollah and demanded the immediate release of detainees and return of the car and its load, while Sheikh Ahmed Qabalan considered any error against the resistance a declaration of existential war on Lebanon; legal experts said the government decision of March 2, 2026 prohibits Hezbollah's military and security activities and that transporting explosives and issuing threats constitute crime and incitement. Free Patriotic Movement head Gebran Bassil said the difference with Hezbollah is big on fateful choices but does not negate their Lebanese identity nor respect for people's pain and sacrifices, stressing that his opposition is based on oversight, accountability and alternatives, not obstruction or gloating, and criticized those who only speak about displaced Syrians when a crime affects one of their officials. In Baghdad, Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji discussed outstanding files between Lebanon and Iran with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, and met Iraqi President Nizar Amidi on the sidelines of Organization of Islamic Cooperation meetings.

Economically, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Lebanon made 'significant progress' toward a funding program with the institution, during a press conference in Bangkok on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, while Industry Minister Joe Issa El Khoury opened the Lebanese pavilion at SIAL 2026 in Paris, describing industrialists as 'real resistance.' On health, Baalbek Government Hospital and the Rene Moawad Foundation opened two medical centers with equipment worth $4,053,000, including a C.T. 128 device, the first of its kind in Lebanon; Health Minister Rakan Nasser al-Din announced the hospital's contributions in 2025 and 2026 reached about $1.7 million, while warning about the health sector and citing 135 martyrs and 180 damaged ambulances. Socially, Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai warned of continued emigration and the absence of the state; Maryam Jamous died on the last Yom Kippur before her husband's fate was revealed, after 42 years of waiting to know the fate of Sulaiman Murad Jamous, abducted in Beirut in 1984; and contracted teachers escalated their moves toward the State Council protesting unpaid dues. In another file, Civil Aviation Authority head Captain Mohammad Aziz issued a video clarification after a Reuters report said Beirut airport lacks a valid accreditation certificate.

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13:00 Israeli escalation in the south and a domestic confrontation over weapons... Lebanon awaits Qatari electricity and IMF support

South Lebanon witnessed sustained Israeli escalation, as a Lebanon Debate correspondent reported that two Israeli vehicles advanced toward the outskirts of Beit Yahoun and Aita al-Jabal after shelling and sweeping targeted the outskirts of Aita al-Jabal, while the National News Agency reported that the Ain al-Samahiya area between Zawtar al-Sharqiya and Mayfadoun was hit by Israeli artillery fire, and that a dense machine-gun sweep took place around the chalets area in the town of Khiam, with no information on casualties or damage. Two aircraft were later spotted flying at medium altitude over the Bekaa Valley toward the eastern mountain range. In contrast, Lebanese Army vehicles and patrols were seen deployed in the streets of the southern suburbs, while British soldiers continue to arrive in Lebanon to take part in the "Pegasus Cedar II" exercise with the army, whose Second Armored Infantry Brigade conducted an exercise with the Air Force in Hanoush – Hamat.

On the domestic front, Prosecutor General Judge Ahmad Rami al-Hajj issued judicial orders to the Intelligence Directorate at Army Command, the Gendarmerie Command and the Judicial Police to conduct inquiries and identify the gunmen who obstructed a judicial mission at Galerie Sam'an, where the patrol raided a medicine warehouse in the Zaghoul building and seized about 1,000 boxes of medicine out of 7,000 that had entered Lebanon under an exceptional decision by the health minister banning their sale, before four gunmen who identified themselves as Hezbollah members arrived, demanded the patrol leave, closed the building entrance and surrounded the officers. The justice minister said explosives and illegal weapons constitute a breach of national security, while MP Qassem Hashem warned that ending UNIFIL's mission would destroy Resolution 1701. This comes amid intensive international contacts to keep Lebanon out of any regional escalation, during which President Joseph Aoun received a call from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressing Tehran's commitment to dialogue and its unwillingness for war, coinciding with Assistant Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh's visit to Beirut and his meeting with Nabih Berri, followed by a call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanding the confiscation of Hezbollah explosives and accountability for those who sent and funded them, and calling for direct contacts between the Lebanese and Israeli armies.

Meanwhile, indications multiplied that Lebanon has become an open arena for intelligence operations: from the taking of former Syrian officer Ali Kayyali from Mansouriya to Syria and Damascus's announcement of his arrest in an operation jointly with Turkish intelligence, to leaks about Hezbollah's security arresting Americans in the southern suburbs and others, linked to the disappearance of retired Captain Ahmad Shukr with Israeli involvement and to the 1994 kidnapping of Mustafa al-Dirani, raising questions about who holds the authority to act on security and where the state and the judiciary stand. This coincided with US concern reported by Arab newspapers over the repercussions of the notification against Lebanon's ambassador in Washington, Nada Mowawad, after her call with the Israeli ambassador, and over Hezbollah's rearmament.

Economically, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva announced that the fund is holding intensive talks with the Lebanese authorities on supporting Lebanon, noting significant progress in the loan program, at a closing press conference of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. The Qatari initiative announced during the visit of Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani to Beirut brought the electricity file back to the forefront, based on investments through a partnership including QatarEnergy and France's TotalEnergies, securing 300 megawatts via Syria in the first six months, then 2,000 megawatts within two years, up to 3,000 megawatts within three years — welcomed by MP Fouad Makhzoumi. On reconstruction, Hezbollah held the government responsible for shelter, reconstruction and support for the displaced, while opposition MPs saw this as an admission of its inability, with figures showing direct damage to buildings exceeding $1.745 billion up to April 2026, more than 21,000 housing units completely destroyed, and more than 329,000 people still internally displaced until September 2026, while the Ministry of Public Works and Transport announced a wide plan to rehabilitate the south. This coincided with the seventh anniversary of the 17 October 2019 collapse and accusations against the Association of Banks, headed by Salim Sfayr, and its 45 member banks of responsibility for depositors' funds, as an opinion article called for distributing accountability according to powers and decisions and for a judicial investigation based on facts and documents. In the street, Jounieh witnessed a protest by families, children and patients near three electricity generators, along with gatherings and road closures in the Bechara El Khoury area.

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07:00 Lebanon: Hezbollah Shifts War Burdens onto the State as Contacts Aim to Keep the Country Out of Regional Escalation

The reconstruction and shelter file in Lebanon opened a political debate after Hezbollah held the government primarily responsible for shelter, reconstruction and support for the displaced, affirming that it is working on a special program for the file when financial capabilities are available. Opposition MPs considered this proposal an admission of the party's incapacity, linking any sustainable solution to returning the entire file to the state and restricting weapons to the state's hands. Partial figures indicate direct damage exceeding $1.745 billion until April 2026, with more than 21,000 housing units completely destroyed and about 329,000 internally displaced until September 2026.

Separately, diplomatic contacts intensified between Lebanon and friendly countries to ensure the country's neutralization from the repercussions of any regional military escalation, amid Lebanese fears of steps Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might take before Knesset elections later this month. Ministerial sources said Lebanese President Joseph Aoun took charge of these contacts and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was brought into their atmosphere as a link between the presidency and Hezbollah, noting that preventing a deterioration in the security situation depends on the party not becoming involved in any regional escalation that could occur in Iran.

On the security level, Hezbollah objected to Internal Security Forces carrying out a raid on a warehouse of expired medicines in the Gallery Semaan area on the outskirts of Beirut's southern suburb without adopting the mechanism agreed with the security agencies. The party said the patrol completed its mission normally after contacts with the competent authorities and denied any relationship to the warehouse's contents, while local media said armed youths affiliated with the party tried to prevent the force from raiding. The incident comes amid the Lebanese government's efforts to restrict weapons and security decision-making to the state. In the context of tension, an article addressed possible Israeli preparations for a new round of fighting in Lebanon, referring to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz revealing an expansionist and displacement plan whose implementation he links to the party entering the war in support of Iran, and to estimates that Iran might launch an attack from several fronts ahead of the Israeli legislative elections on October 27.

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01:00 Lebanon: Post-UNIFIL Diplomacy, Israeli Escalation in the South, and Security, Health, and Economic Files

UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix concluded a three-day visit to Lebanon, during which he affirmed the international organization's commitment to supporting peace and stability, stressing the importance of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Lacroix met President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Foreign Minister Youssef Raji, and discussed the implementation of the resolution, UNIFIL's work, and options for the post-mandate phase after its expiration on December 31, 2026. This comes as French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barro and Armed Forces Minister Alice Rufo visit Lebanon on Saturday and Sunday to discuss the future of the international presence as UNIFIL's mandate ends at the end of this year, as part of Paris's support for implementing the framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel under American auspices and avoiding a highly dangerous security vacuum, after EU foreign ministers agreed to create a new civilian-military mission that does not replace UNIFIL and will not deploy in the south. Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani also visited Beirut and met Lebanese officials, affirming Qatar's support for the government's efforts to expand state authority over weapons and territory, and discussing support for the energy crisis, coinciding with Lebanon's pursuit of economic aid from Gulf states.

On the security front, Israel continues its airstrikes, artillery shelling, and home demolitions in southern Lebanon, with movements of its vehicles recorded near Ibl al-Saqi, Khiam, and Houla, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asked US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to pressure Israel to stop the attacks and commit to the framework agreement. The Qatari Prime Minister affirmed Qatar's support for the Lebanese state's steps, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and Doha's efforts to solve the energy crisis. In a prominent development, Hezbollah claimed ownership of the truck of weapons and explosives, shifting the question from the weapon to who owns the decision to use it: Can Speaker Nabih Berri prevent a new confrontation, or does the decision of war and peace remain outside state institutions? US Ambassador Michel Issa called on the Lebanese government to deal seriously and quickly with the issue of the entry of explosives, while Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister called on the Lebanese people to support Hezbollah to activate deterrence. In the south, Israeli artillery targeted the Al-Dair neighborhood in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and illumination bombs fell on the outskirts of Zabqin in the Tyre district. A Lebanese security source said Turkish and Syrian intelligence kidnapped Ali Kayali from the Mansourieh area near Beirut and transferred him to the Syrian embassy and then to Syria, after Damascus announced his arrest on Thursday; Kayali, known as 'Meraj Ural', is accused of being the main responsible for a massacre that killed at least 248 people in Bayda and Baniyas in 2013 according to Human Rights Watch, and Ankara also accuses him of being behind the 2013 Reyhanli bombings. He had resided in Lebanon since the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

On domestic files, the Ministry of Public Health announced its intention to update and re-study all biosimilar drug files according to updated World Health Organization standards, after unfit drugs were seized in a warehouse in the Galilee Sam'an area in Beirut, while Hezbollah denied any relation to the warehouse. A report by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) revealed that Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport lacks a valid accreditation certificate and noted shortcomings in the airport and the aviation system, which could delay the resumption of direct flights between the United States and Lebanon despite President Donald Trump's order in September allowing direct flights after a 4-decade suspension; the Transport Minister expected the certificate within days, while a UN report indicated the absence of an independent body to investigate plane crashes. Economically, Bank Audi's weekly report noted positive momentum in financial markets after the central bank governor's statements expressing confidence in reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the government on the financial gap law before the end of the year, raising Eurobond prices to 26.25-29.25 cents per dollar on Friday, against the continued decline of the Beirut Stock Exchange by 1.3% and a trading volume of about $2.4 million, with the lira stable in the parallel market. Security-wise, security forces conducted raids and checkpoints from Beirut to Akkar, arresting 56 people and seizing items. On the union front, contractors are heading toward Monday, described as a decisive day, between returning to the ranks and moving to the street, while the Lebanese Football Federation announced naming the Lebanon championship for the 2026-2027 season as the Fantasia Championship in partnership with MTV.

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2026-10-16

19:00 Lebanon: Israeli Strikes and Incursion in the South, Security Patrol Besieged at Medicine Warehouse, and Qatari Electricity Project

Lebanon witnessed continued Israeli escalation in the south on Friday, October 16, 2026, as the Israeli army launched airstrikes, artillery shelling, and explosions in the areas of Mansouri, Bint Jbeil, the Sarbin and Zibqin valleys, Kafr Tibnit, Zawtar East, and Jarmaq, with military vehicles advancing toward the southern outskirts of Kfarshouba, while a drone dropped a sound bomb on the outskirts of Khiam. These attacks continue despite a US-sponsored framework, amid an official Lebanese toll of 4,389 dead and 12,424 wounded since March 2. In a prominent internal security incident, dozens of armed young men affiliated with Hezbollah besieged a patrol of the Central Criminal Investigations Bureau consisting of 15 members that was executing a commission from Public Prosecutor Ahmed Rami Al-Hajj, based on a referral from Health Minister Rakan Nasreddin, to seize and confiscate expired medicines in warehouses belonging to a pharmaceutical company in the Galory Semaan area; they prevented the brigadier general heading the patrol from sealing the warehouses with red wax, before the armed groups withdrew after a large Lebanese Army force arrived.

Diplomatically, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam discussed with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, during his visit to Beirut, an integrated Qatari project to rehabilitate and develop electricity production infrastructure, based on Qatari financing, execution, and operation with no upfront investment cost on the Lebanese treasury, within a comprehensive framework for energy cooperation and interconnection projects with Syria and Iraq. Speaker Nabih Berri affirmed the congruence of Lebanese and Qatari positions on strengthening national unity and supporting the army, while the Qatari minister stressed the necessity of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese territory and all parties' implementation of Resolution 1701. Amid intensive international contacts to keep Lebanon out of any regional escalation, President Joseph Aoun discussed in a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio the situation in the south and Israeli attacks, while Washington called for direct communication between the Lebanese and Israeli armies. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji also met with UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix to discuss the situation in south Lebanon and the future of the international presence after UNIFIL's mission ends in its current form, reaffirming Lebanon's position calling for maintaining an international force to replace UNIFIL when its mandate ends at the end of the year.

That came as new European and French-Italian security arrangements are taking shape in Paris and Brussels with the approach of the end of UNIFIL's mandate on December 31, through two tracks: a European mission to strengthen the capabilities of the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces for at least three years, and a French-Italian initiative to form a coalition of countries capable of keeping military forces on Lebanese soil, without either being a direct alternative to UNIFIL or including a mandate to disarm Hezbollah or impose an Israeli withdrawal. Domestically, General Security extended the deadline for regularizing the status of foreign workers violating residency rules and controlling Syrian labor in Lebanon until January 29, 2027, while a child was killed in an explosion in Akkar al-Atiqa, and an inhabited building in Mefdoun was targeted by a rocket that did not explode followed by another.

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13:00 Widespread Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon and threats to expand occupation... diplomatic contacts to contain the situation

Southern Lebanon on Friday witnessed continuous Israeli escalation, with airstrikes and artillery shelling targeting several areas, most notably the outskirts of Bint Jbeil, the vicinity of Braasheet and Beit Yahoun, Al-Mansouri, eastern Zoutar, Majdel Selm, Toulin, Al-Jarmaq, Kfarchouba, Sarbin, and Yater, in addition to night shelling on Al-Jarmaq in the Jezzine area. Israeli forces also bulldozed olive fields in the Arzayel area south of Kfarchouba, and Israeli vehicles were recorded moving in the town of Haddatha with heavy machine-gun sweeping. An Israeli drone dropped a sound bomb on the outskirts of the town of Khiam, and an Israeli patrol entered a press in the south amid a curfew after five o'clock. This comes as Israel raised the ceiling of its threats to expand its occupation in southern Lebanon, with Defense Minister Israel Katz threatening to add the Nabatieh and Litani areas to the "permanent security zone" if Hezbollah engages in a potential confrontation between Israel and Iran, and the 282nd Artillery Brigade finishing its training and moving to southern Lebanon. In this context, Israeli media reported the launch of an interceptor missile in northern Israel, and Channel 12 quoted the Ma'ale Yosef Regional Council in the Upper Galilee as saying that the Israeli army is preparing to launch raids on areas in Lebanon in the coming hours, with explosions expected to be heard in the Western Galilee and the central Upper Galilee.

Diplomatically, contacts continue to contain the situation and prevent Lebanon from sliding into a new war. In this context, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed by phone with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun the file of hundreds of kilograms of explosives seized by Lebanese security agencies, stressing that returning them to Hezbollah should not be an option, calling for holding accountable those responsible for shipping and directing them and for establishing direct military communication between the Lebanese Army and the occupation army. Aoun informed Rubio that the army and security forces are implementing decisions to prevent armed manifestations, confiscate weapons and ammunition, and combat smuggling. It was also learned that EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas proposed during her visit to Beirut this month a swap involving the creation of a European training mission for the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces in exchange for "serious commitments from the Lebanese government regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah." Sources of Al-Diyar newspaper reported that Ambassador Issa raised the necessity of amending Lebanese laws that criminalize dealing with Israel. On the other hand, the Qatari Prime Minister announced from Baabda his country's support for Lebanon in all steps related to Israeli actions, support for the orientation of the Lebanese state, Israel's withdrawal from occupied territories, and handover of custody to the Lebanese Army, in addition to seeking to provide integrated solutions in the energy field. Politically, an official source in the Lebanese Forces party confirmed that the withdrawal of ministers supported by the party from the ministerial session came because of an attempt to "dilute" the electricity crisis, describing the withdrawal as an escalation option.

Economically, a report said that Banque du Liban revoked the license of "Iran Export Bank" at a direct US request. The special report of the Court of Audit No. 2026/5 revealed that the telecommunications sector loses about $128 million annually due to illegal internet networks that include more than one million subscribers, with the state's market share declining from about 50% to less than 25%, holding successive communications ministers since 2018 responsible. World Bank Group President Ajay Banga called on Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria to seize a "historic opportunity" for reform, noting that reform begins with internal will. The fuel price schedule recorded a decrease in the prices of gasoline of both types and diesel.

Security-wise and internally, the Lebanese Army carried out extensive security measures in the Bekaa that resulted in the arrest of 16 wanted persons and the seizure of military weapons and ammunition, and a wanted man was killed during a raid in Tmenin Tahta after an exchange of fire. The General Directorate of General Security extended the deadline for settling the status of foreign workers until 29/01/2027. Culturally, the Beirut Arab International Book Fair is organizing its 67th session with the participation of about 165 publishing houses, and the sixth edition of the Lebanese Film Festival launched in France with 47 films screened.

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07:00 Lebanon: Aoun asks Rubio to pressure Israel amid efforts to contain escalation

Lebanon on 16 October 2026 saw intense diplomatic activity and fears of sliding into a new war. The Lebanese presidency said President Joseph Aoun received a phone call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during which Aoun asked Rubio to pressure Israel to stop its attacks on southern villages and towns, abide by the framework agreement, stop bulldozing and enable farmers to reach their fields. Aoun affirmed that the army and security forces are implementing decisions to prevent armed displays, confiscate weapons and combat smuggling, while Reuters quoted a US official as saying Rubio called for direct military communication between the Lebanese and Israeli forces. In a related context, Rosanna Bou Monsef wrote in 'Kitab An-Nahar' that diplomatic efforts are focused on keeping the situation in Lebanon under control and preventing it from sliding into a new war, amid fears of a possible confrontation over tension with Iran, referring to a call between President Joseph Aoun and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Israeli warnings against expanding the war, and the Lebanese government's efforts to disarm Hezbollah and end Iranian influence. President Aoun also denied what was circulated about Lebanon's ambassador to Washington, Nada Mowad, saying it was 'far from truth and reality', and warned that targeting the path to end the war is a 'crime against the country'.

On the security level, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health announced that two people, one a child, were injured in an Israeli raid targeting the town of Haddatha in Bint Jbeil district, southern Lebanon, within an ongoing military escalation. Israeli warplanes intensified raids on towns in Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts, especially in the western and central sectors, carrying out three raids on the town of Mansouri and a fourth on Wadi Zibqin in Tyre district. This coincided with intense Israeli artillery shelling that targeted the towns of Braashit, Haddatha, the outskirts of Haris, Mansouri, Majdel Zoun, the surroundings of Zibqin, Shaqra and Haddatha.

Judicially and economically, the State Shura Council rejected requests by former communications ministers to suspend the enforcement of Court of Accounts decisions fining them millions of dollars, meaning these decisions remain in force and can be enforced until final rulings are issued in the original appeals. The Court of Accounts had issued on 25 November 2025 a ruling fining the ministers over files of renting and buying buildings and wasting public money. On the olive file, an An-Nahar report noted that 814 hectares were damaged and losses exceeded $236 million since 2023, while the price of a tin of olive oil may reach about $200, with exports falling 53.7% in the first seven months of 2026, amid difficulties for southern farmers in reaching their lands due to security restrictions and damage caused by Israeli bombardment.

Domestically, the olive season began in early October in coastal areas and extends in mountainous areas above 800 metres until the end of December. Despite the large crop, presses say the 'maqtou'iya' (pressing yield) is poor with high production costs, and the harvest of southern residents and border villages is absent; An-Nahar toured villages in Batroun district, with pressing costs ranging between $16 and $25 per tin and a tin of oil sold at $150. The electricity file was also on the table of Lebanese-Qatari talks in the 15 October bulletin on LBCI. Banque du Liban denied appointing former minister Salim Jreissati as an adviser to it, while pediatricians and major hospitals complained of not receiving seasonal influenza vaccines, with a promise that the usual vaccines will arrive in late current October.

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01:00 Lebanon: U.S. call over Hezbollah explosives and push to save UNIFIL amid Israeli shelling

On the evening of Thursday, October 15, 2026, Lebanon witnessed an interconnected security and diplomatic escalation. A U.S. State Department official said Secretary Marco Rubio held a phone call with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun addressing recent developments, including the seizure of several hundred kilograms of explosives belonging to Hezbollah. Rubio urged Aoun to hold accountable all who ordered, financed, and supervised the shipment of these explosives, stressing that returning the explosives to Hezbollah must be entirely out of the question. He also raised Lebanon's 1955 Israel boycott law, describing it as impractical.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah acknowledged that the vehicle loaded with hundreds of kilograms of explosive materials seized by Lebanese security forces last week in the Beqaa region of eastern Lebanon belongs to the group, and that the explosives were prepared for use against Israel. Authorities had seized the vehicle at a checkpoint and arrested two people inside without disclosing at the time which party it belonged to. A Hezbollah official and a Lebanese security source told Reuters the explosives were intended for drones. In the south, a Lebanon Debate correspondent reported violent and continuous Israeli artillery shelling targeting the town of Mansouri on Thursday evening. MP Jamil al-Sayyed also commented on Syrian authorities' announcement of the detention of retired Syrian Brig. Gen. Miraj Ural, amid reports he was kidnapped from his home in Mansourieh El Matn.

On the UN file, 86 MPs signed a memorandum demanding that the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) remain, handing it to UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix as the current mandate nears its end. They warned against any security or international vacuum in the south amid continued Israeli presence in parts of Lebanese territory. Lacroix visited UNIFIL headquarters and discussed reducing its numbers and the path of its withdrawal. UNIFIL said it continues, under Resolution 1701, to support Lebanon and Israel in implementing their obligations by monitoring developments, reporting violations impartially, and communicating with the parties to avoid misunderstanding and reduce tensions. Political positions varied: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea called on the United States to pressure Lebanon, considering that dismantling Hezbollah must precede an Israeli withdrawal; MP Elias Hankash said “the resistance is an outlawed armed group” according to government decisions and that no one defends Lebanon but the army; MP Qassem Hashem rejected direct negotiation and asked what negotiations had produced so far; and Issa blamed the authorities for “procrastination,” calling for the repeal of the boycott law.

Economically, Central Bank Governor Karim Said affirmed that talks with the International Monetary Fund are progressing well, expressing confidence that agreement would be reached before the end of the year on the principles that need clarification in the financial gap law, and hoping Parliament would approve the law by mid-2027. He revealed that the Central Bank's liabilities to the banking sector amount to about $79 billion, about one third of which may be subject to objections, which could make the likely net amount to be paid to depositors around $50 billion. This week, the Central Bank also revoked the license granted to Bank Saderat Iran to operate in the Lebanese market, a step that removes one of the most prominent state-owned Iranian banks from the local banking sector and coincides with Washington's escalation of its campaign to isolate Tehran financially, with no detailed explanation so far of the implementation mechanism, including the fate of the five branches, accounts, deposits, and about 70 employees. This came after reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised the bank's file during the Lebanese government delegation's meeting in Washington. Domestically, a report warned that the election race is raising tensions amid fears of a regional explosion that could extend to Lebanon and Yemen; MTV published a special investigation into the relationship between state institutions and Hezbollah's civil and financial network; and 16 violation reports were registered against generator owners in Dahieh and its surroundings.

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2026-10-15

19:00 Lebanon: Bank Saderat License Revoked, Hezbollah Defies Government Decision, and Warning of Economic 'Abyss'

Lebanon's central bank this week revoked the local license of Iran's Bank Saderat, a step Central Bank Governor Karim Saeed said aimed to protect the banking sector from contagion and sanctions, amid mounting US pressure and efforts to exit the Financial Action Task Force's grey list. In the economic context, a Lebanese delegation led by Finance Minister Yassin Jaber participated in the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Bangkok, where it discussed financing recovery projects, financial and tax reform, and agreed with the Syrian side to form a joint technical team on financial and banking cooperation and Syrian deposits in Lebanese banks. On the other hand, head of the Depositors' Association Hassan Mughnieh warned that Lebanon is heading toward a 'major social and economic abyss,' revealing about $35 billion in illicit deposits and saying that 39,000 depositors have died since 2019, considering what happened 'theft, not a financial gap.'

MP Hassan Fadlallah declared the government decision issued on March 2 null and void, and that Hezbollah 'does not recognize any effects of it on the ground,' in a direct challenge to President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. This came as the investigation into the explosives truck seized at Dahr al-Baydar expanded to include possible facilitation of its passage, with an officer and 10 security personnel summoned, and the arrest of Haitham Amhaz and Ali al-Kurdi, who reportedly admitted the shipment belonged to Hezbollah. In the south, Israeli artillery targeted the al-Jarmaq area, while the National News Agency reported an Israeli airstrike on the town of Kfar Tibnit, amid anticipation of a Lebanese-Israeli-American military meeting in Tampa next Tuesday.

Diplomatically, Qatar's prime minister arrived in Lebanon, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to make a phone call to President Aoun at 7 p.m. Beirut time, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatib Zadeh visited Beirut and met Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. President Aoun affirmed that negotiations have not stopped and that the goal is Lebanon's interest. On the security and judicial front, judicial investigations uncovered an international drug network extending from Belgium to Lebanon, and the Appellate Public Prosecutor in Mount Lebanon, Judge Sami Sader, charged 59 people, while George Deeb, known as 'Dr. Food,' was released after the general amnesty law was published.

In other news, Telecommunications Minister Charles Hajj announced the signing of contracts for 25 central offices to bring fiber optics to 330,000 homes, and development work continues at René Moawad Airport in Qlei'at ahead of its opening on November 15 as set by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. A university diploma in robotic surgery was also launched under the patronage of President Aoun, and Lebanon won a gold and bronze medal at the Arab Golf Championship for juniors and youth in Egypt.

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13:01 Lebanon: Israeli Escalation and Warnings of Southern Vacuum… Salameh Trial Postponed, IMF Progress

Israeli threats against Lebanon escalated, with talk of a possible third, more destructive war, and Tel Aviv linking any withdrawal from areas inside Lebanese territory to the disarmament of Hezbollah and the imposition of a 'permanent security zone,' according to military expert Brig. Gen. George Nader. In the south, UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix warned of a 'dangerous vacuum' as UNIFIL's mandate nears its end on 31 December, while President Joseph Aoun stressed that withdrawal would have negative repercussions. This coincided with a Statistics Lebanon poll of 800 Shia citizens showing that 63.3% support an agreement with Israel, 66.4% support placing Hezbollah's weapons under state control, 71.1% believe the decision of war and peace should be exclusively in the hands of the state, and 51.1% consider the Lebanese Army most capable of ensuring long-term security. Meanwhile, France is banking on the new European support mission to train the army and Internal Security Forces in border and maritime security and counter-drone operations, to deploy for at least three years starting north of the Litani River, with the possibility of moving part of its activities to the south with the Lebanese government's approval. Germany also announced raising its support for the Lebanese army to €10 million. On the ground, an Israeli force prevented farmers from the town of Kfarshouba from picking olives in the areas of Azrael and Bastra, and the Israeli Air Force spotted Hezbollah drones in southern Lebanon since late September, most of them for reconnaissance, amid reports that the region is on the brink of explosion.

Judicially, the Beirut Criminal Court, headed by Judge Samir Aqqiqi, postponed the trial of former Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and lawyer Marwan Issa El Khoury in the 'consultancy account' case to 3 December, and decided to try lawyer Michel Tueni in absentia, considering him a fugitive from justice after rejecting the medical excuse submitted by his agent. The second session saw tight security measures that prevented filming Salameh, who appeared alone in the dock; the court rejected the formal defenses of Issa El Khoury and imposed a fine of 150 million Lebanese pounds on him. In a separate file, Riad Salameh applied to benefit from the general amnesty law. The Constitutional Council had partially invalidated Amnesty Law No. 2026/70, preventing coverage of several categories, including those who served disciplinary sanctions, military and security personnel who committed drug crimes, forgers and corrupt individuals, and perpetrators of war crimes, torture, enforced disappearance and premeditated murder. In Roumieh Prison, inmates did not continue their hunger and medication strike, but anger and depression affected a number of them. Politically, the implementation of the new media law topped the meetings of Information Minister Paul Morcos with the representative of the International Francophonie Organization in the Middle East, Levon Amirjanyan, and MP Jimmy Jaber, with emphasis on moving from legislation to implementation, amid talk of an upcoming visit by a large Iranian delegation to Lebanon.

Economically, IMF Deputy Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department Athanasios Arvanitis announced that IMF officials held 'good' discussions with the Lebanese authorities this week, to continue in the coming weeks with an IMF team expected to visit Lebanon in November, focusing on the banking sector, ensuring the restoration of the Lebanese people's confidence in the financial system, and returning public debt to a sustainable path. The Lebanese delegation, headed by Finance Minister Yassin Jaber, had completed its meetings in Bangkok. This coincided with the return of the financial gap law to the forefront of negotiations, with discussions limited to three issues: distributing banking sector losses, mechanisms for repaying and rescheduling deposits, and the size of the state's contribution to restructuring, with Economy Minister Amer Bisat estimating total deposits at about $80 billion and economic estimates putting losses at nearly $70 billion, leaving the fate of depositors' rights hanging. In Damascus, the first Lebanese-Syrian technical negotiating meeting was held to discuss customs and non-customs fees and charges and transit and transport costs; the two sides agreed to continue exchanging technical data, study ways to improve truck movement through crossings, and consider initial ideas for a draft agreement regulating trade between the two countries. Gold prices also rose again.

Socially, contract professors at the Lebanese University announced the continuation of their strike until the tenure file is approved, while professors of the second branch are set to end the strike on Tuesday, amid negotiations with the first branches. The official education sector witnessed a sudden strike announced by the Teachers Association over the Ministry of Education's decision to suspend about 400 teachers and educational counselors in the afternoon shift dedicated to teaching Syrian refugee students, while the 'Educational Guidance in the Evening Shift for Non-Lebanese' committee demanded that Minister Reema Karami retract Memo No. 198/m/2026, which removed more than 400 educational counselors. The Contractors Committee in the Public Administration Employees Association also announced the preparation of a draft law to expand retirement protection for contractors and wage workers. On the security front, the Internal Security Forces arrested five drug promoters in the Abu Samra area, and the Regie's anti-smuggling unit carried out raids against smuggled and counterfeit tobacco in Hay El Sellom, Al-Radov, Chtaura, Bodnayel, Temnin El Fawqa, Btalloun and Baqaa. Weather-wise, Lebanon is affected by a depression from Thursday noon until Sunday noon with heavy rain, thunderstorms and winds up to 65 km/h, which flooded a street in Dekwaneh, amid heavy traffic in Ain El Mreisseh, Hamra and Verdun. In sports, Lebanon won gold and bronze at the Arab Golf Championship for juniors and youth in Egypt, and the Lebanon International Short Film Festival concluded its 13th edition in Beirut with 63 films from 17 countries.

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08:52 Lebanon: Region on verge of ignition, UN move on UNIFIL, IMF mission, and a weather depression until Sunday

On the security and political front, Al-Jadeed highlighted an article in Al-Jumhuriya discussing the possibility of the region igniting and raising a question about the situation of the Lebanon front in this context. On the UNIFIL file, a press report addressed three options regarding the future of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and asked about the motives behind the UN move related to this file.

Economically, an IMF official announced that the Fund will send a mission to Lebanon in November, according to LBCI Lebanon. In an Al-Jadeed report, gold prices have risen again, with a question about the levels prices have currently reached, without additional details on figures or markets.

As for the weather, the Lebanese Meteorological Department and the forecasts of specialist Father Elie Khneisser announced that Lebanon will be affected by a depression centered southwest of Turkey from Thursday noon until Sunday noon, with scattered heavy rain at times, thunderstorms, possible hail, and a noticeable drop in temperature. The coast and western mountains are expected to receive the largest share of rain, with southwesterly winds reaching 65 km/h and a rough sea, before the depression gradually recedes on Sunday.

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2026-10-14

19:00 Lebanon between Israeli threats to expand operations and diplomatic efforts to avoid a security vacuum

Israeli threats dominated the scene in Lebanon, as Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened to expand military operations and seize more territory if Hezbollah joins Iran in attacking Israel, announcing the army's readiness to carry out a ground maneuver. Speaking from inside Lebanese territory, Katz said areas in Nabatieh and the Litani would become part of a "permanent security zone" for Israel, threatening to evacuate residents north to the Awali and Zahrani line and evacuate most of Beirut's southern suburbs, potentially displacing more than a million people. This coincided with Israeli artillery shelling targeting the town of Beit Lif and Wadi al-Ghadir on the outskirts of Haris and Sarbin, and a drone flying over Jezzine.

On the other hand, diplomatic efforts intensified to avoid a security vacuum, as UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix visited Lebanon and met President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Army Commander General Rudolph Haykal. They discussed options for continuing the UN presence after UNIFIL's mandate ends at the end of 2026, with Lacroix stressing that the situation in the south remains complex and the importance of hearing Lebanon's voice in the Security Council. The Lebanese side insisted on UNIFIL's stay or avoiding a vacuum. The EU Council approved the establishment of an "EU Support Mission in Lebanon" for three years to train the army on border surveillance and support internal security forces, without being a replacement for UNIFIL. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji also discussed in Moscow files of sovereignty and direct negotiations with Israel, stressing the framework agreement for full withdrawal and restricting arms. Meanwhile, Deputy Speaker of the Supreme Shia Islamic Council Sheikh Ali Al-Khatib received Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh, discussing developments with a focus on south Lebanon, and Syrian Chargé d'Affaires Ayad Haza's tours of Lebanese officials included an invitation to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to visit Syria.

Internally, the referral of a complaint against Lebanon's ambassador to Washington, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, to the military judiciary sparked surprise from the Lebanese Forces and MP Raji al-Saad, while the US State Department denounced the referral. A poll by "Statistics Lebanon" revealed that 66.4% of Shia respondents supported handing over Hezbollah's weapons to the state. On the economic front, Economy Minister Amer Bisat said negotiations on the financial gap law with the IMF focus on distributing bank losses, scheduling deposits, and the state's contribution, with deposits of $80 billion and liquidity of $12 billion. The Central Bank is studying increasing monthly payments for depositors by $200 under Circular 158 and $100 under Circular 166, amid objections from the "Scream of Depositors" group, while the general amnesty law No. 70 remains under implementation with corruption crimes excluded. "An-Nahar" learned that a Gulf country is preparing a major development project in south Lebanon conditional on Israeli withdrawal, and First Lady Neemat Aoun announced expanding the "Citizenship School" to 300 schools, and President Aoun wished Pope Leo XIV a speedy recovery.

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