The war between the United States and Iran has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, with Iran stepping up attacks on oil tankers in Hormuz and the Gulf and keeping crude prices above $100 per barrel. A British authority recorded 12 attacks over the past week, while two cargo ships sank, as Washington facilitated covert transits for tankers. The Houthis targeted a Saudi tanker in Bab al-Mandab and attacked Riyadh airport.
In Tehran, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Ali Abdollahi, warned the United States and Israel that any miscalculation or new hostile act would face a harsher and more destructive response than before, stressing that the armed forces are on alert for any scenario. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's threats to topple the Iranian regime, asserting that Tehran emerged stronger from previous attacks and has unsettled accounts with Israel. He accused Netanyahu of trying to drag Washington into a new war to avoid prison, while Iranian military officials warned of a stronger response to any attack. A proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remains on the table amid disputes over the blockade, sanctions and the nuclear file. The spokesman for the IRGC said America failed to open the Strait of Hormuz and did not ensure energy passage. Mohammad Mokhber, adviser and assistant to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned against concessions on Hormuz, accused Israel of relying entirely on US support, and said US and British bases in Europe are at Washington's disposal; he acknowledged that Iran was defeated in past wars except for the current phase, amid regional tension and stalled negotiations between Tehran and Washington. President Masoud Pezeshkian said the military attack and economic blockade have caused many problems for the country.
On the mediation track, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced after talks in Iran with his counterpart Abbas Araghchi that Moscow is ready to find an acceptable solution to exit the Iran-US war. He stressed the need to ensure security in the Strait of Hormuz and return the region to its pre-war state, affirming Russia's commitment to the strategic cooperation document with Iran. Araghchi described the meeting as fruitful and important, stressing that the relationship with Moscow is strategic, and said his country held consultations with the Russian delegation on the Yemen file and developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The Chinese Prime Minister also announced his country's readiness to enhance exchanges and cooperation with Iran.
An analytical report discussed four scenarios for the future of the war on Iran in light of Israeli elections scheduled for October 27 and US midterm elections on November 3. They range from resuming military strikes if Netanyahu and the Republicans win, to containing the war through a settlement if Netanyahu loses and the Democrats win, with the possibility of Israeli escalation under US constraints or US-Israeli differences over the war's course. In Germany, authorities are pursuing leads pointing to Iran in an assassination plot involving a silenced pistol. In Iran, reviving Khamenei's name sparked a legal and popular controversy that was met with rejection. Araghchi said the region's issues have no solution except through dialogue, urging Europeans to adopt rationality and diplomacy. Iranian newspapers quoted Israel's foreign minister telling Araghchi that whoever kills his people and exports terrorism does not give France lessons in freedom, and covered US threats to target the fortified Kalnk facility near Natanz and their potential impact on the Strait of Hormuz and energy markets, with Kayhan vowing a violent response that would hit Israeli nuclear facilities, a division in the US administration over the war, and economic issues such as inflation, wheat support and non-oil exports.