Security tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that its naval forces had seized a US autonomous submarine of the Mk 18 Mod 2 Kingfish type, which Guards spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi described as the 'second prey,' saying the strait 'is not only closed, but is also a place for sniping American submarines.' No US confirmation was issued, while the US military has previously denied similar announcements. In parallel, NBC News reported that 8 US Marines, including 7 soldiers and an officer, were injured in an Iranian cruise missile attack on September 14 targeting a ship they were working aboard in the Strait of Hormuz, without US authorities officially announcing the incident at the time. The network said the injured inhaled smoke and showed symptoms consistent with concussion, described the injuries as not serious, and said they were entered into the Pentagon’s injury tracking system about 10 days later, amid a US naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Economically, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Iran may be only about two weeks away from completing its last oil shipments bound for China, with only about 15 million barrels of Iranian oil still at sea awaiting delivery. He predicted Tehran would then face unprecedented economic pressure as Washington tightens the noose on its exports and trade outlets, within the 'Operation Economic Outcast' campaign launched by the Treasury on August 24, 2026, under the direction of President Donald Trump.
Diplomatically, The Wall Street Journal revealed international and regional mediation aimed at pushing Iran to make concrete concessions on its nuclear file in exchange for resuming frozen talks, amid deadlock due to both sides sticking to their conditions. Tehran demands security guarantees protecting it from any Israeli attack and believes Washington should make concessions first, while Iran’s IRNA denied that any new talks are scheduled, after US President Donald Trump rejected Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Reports continue about expected US-Iran talks shrouded in mystery, while Iran said no talks are scheduled between it and the United States, amid Trump’s rejection of an Iranian proposal for a 7-day truce and mediators’ focus on the nuclear file.
In a regional reading, after about seven months of conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, Gürsel Tokmakoglu, former head of the intelligence department in the Turkish Air Force, believed that the conflict has lost momentum with the approach of the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, but has not stopped and has moved to a 'changing the situation' phase, with the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue remaining pending knots, the center of gravity in the Gulf shifting to Saudi Arabia amid Houthi escalation in the Red Sea, and the Mecca agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan as a possible deterrence mechanism. A Western diplomat also warned before more than one Lebanese official of growing indicators of internal explosion in Iran and its slide toward civil war due to accumulated economic, political and security pressures. In a tangled political context, a report quoted American media figure Tucker Carlson as saying that President Donald Trump was immediately isolated over his threat to annihilate Iran with 'nuclear' weapons, with talk of the behind-the-scenes of their White House meeting and the linking of officials, including Mike Huckabee, to Israel’s annexation of parts of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, without additional details about the sources of this information.