Situation assessment

Reports over the past 72 hours reflect a dual situation in the Gaza Strip: continued Israeli airstrikes on scattered sites, including Nasser Medical Hospital in Khan Younis, a residential building in the Tuffah neighborhood, a workshop in Gaza City, and the Sheikh Radwan and Tal al-Hawa areas, with deaths and injuries in several incidents. In parallel, heavy rains caused floods that submerged about 70,000 tents and forced hundreds of families to leave displacement camps, while five people, including three children, were killed when a sandbank collapsed on tents in Deir al-Balah. UNICEF warned of a health catastrophe and disclosed an Israeli refusal described as serious, while the Arab League, the Peace Council, and the G7 called for urgent action and aid entry. Politically, the Israeli army called on Hamas’s leadership to disarm and assume its responsibilities, while Hamas asked the Peace Council for a timeline and verification mechanism to implement the roadmap. Reports also indicated that a multinational force is approaching Gaza and that Washington is moving to impose a plan, without details. In the West Bank, incursions and arrests continued, including the arrest of a 10-member Islamic Jihad cell, a child was killed in the town of Burqa, and 305 settlers entered the Aqsa Mosque.

The reports show two parallel tracks: continuing Israeli military escalation in Gaza, including civilian, medical, and infrastructure targets, against a worsening humanitarian crisis exacerbated by rain, floods, and collapsed displacement conditions. Repeated strikes, including near Nasser Hospital, indicate continued Israeli military pressure, while the Israeli call on Hamas to disarm reflects an attempt to define responsibility for running the Strip and to link any future arrangements to the weapons issue. At the same time, international pressure, especially American, appears to have pushed Israel to prepare to allow dual-use equipment for sewage repair, but through a mechanism preventing it from reaching Hamas, meaning limited technical facilitation rather than a fundamental policy change. Politically, the Palestinian arena appears fragmented: Hamas demands a timeline and verification mechanism, the Palestinian Authority focuses on workers’ return, release of clearance funds, and curbing settlers without relying on a political track, while reports speak of a multinational force and an American plan with unclear details. In the West Bank, incursions, arrests, the Aqsa incursion, and the killing of a child in Burqa confirm continued tension, with the G7 warning against escalation, linking the Gaza and West Bank tracks amid the absence of a clear political horizon.

Based on the data, limited and scattered Israeli strikes in Gaza are likely to continue in the coming period, with humanitarian conditions continuing to deteriorate due to rain, floods, and infrastructure collapse. Israeli technical facilitation for entering sewage equipment may expand if American pressure continues, but such steps are unlikely to constitute a political breakthrough or a comprehensive lifting of restrictions. At the same time, there are no indications of an imminent agreement on Hamas’s disarmament or governance and security arrangements, leaving the path of the multinational force and the American plan ambiguous and subject to delay. In the West Bank, tension is likely to continue with arrests, incursions, and confrontations, especially given the G7 warning. The most likely scenario is continuation of the current situation with gradual humanitarian deterioration, without a political resolution, and with the possibility of limited relief initiatives or localized calm arrangements if international pressure escalates.