Lebanon Between Israeli Military Pressure and Post-UNIFIL Requirements: The Weapons File Tests the State
Bottom line
The most important point for the reader is that Lebanon's stability at this stage is determined by the overlap between the weapons file and southern security arrangements with UNIFIL's future, Israeli pressure and US pressure, not by any single file. Field escalation and internal security files may intersect with the economic deadline in a way that poses a real existential challenge to the state unless political, judicial and security tracks are separated and an internal and external understanding is reached linking Israeli withdrawal and southern arrangements to a gradual path toward state authority.
Current situation
News over the past 72 hours reflects a complex Lebanese situation combining Israeli military escalation in the south, including airstrikes, artillery fire, incursions and road-opening near Shebaa and Hasbaya, some of which coincided with a speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem. Politically, Qassem linked discussion of Hezbollah's weapons to Israeli withdrawal and an end to what he called guardianship, rejecting disarmament, weapons control or prohibition under Israeli pressure, and calling on the state to back away from the framework agreement and not raise the issue of a state monopoly on weapons amid continuing what he described as aggression. Meanwhile, Washington stressed that the Lebanese Army should proceed with disarming Hezbollah, while Lebanese positions diverged between calls for a state monopoly on weapons and warnings against turning the army into a party to internal division. Intersecting with this are sensitive security files: the arrest of five suspects affiliated with Hezbollah in the Jurd of Bsharri and Batroun and an attempt to destroy documents, the killing of former Iraqi MP Ahmed al-Alwani in Beirut, reports of continued smuggling across the Syrian border, and gunfire at a UNIFIL patrol. In parallel, IMF talks continue over deposits and banking losses, about 1.05 million people face food insecurity, and Parliament is discussing legislative items including electricity.
Analysis
Israeli military escalation in the south appears inseparable from the political and negotiating track concerning the post-UNIFIL phase and southern security arrangements. The strikes and incursions, including their coincidence with Qassem's speech, apply battlefield pressure on Hezbollah and affect the terms of any forthcoming arrangement, while Hezbollah seeks to turn discussion of its weapons into an outcome linked to Israeli withdrawal and an end to what it considers external guardianship, thereby tying its internal file to the regional and security file. Meanwhile, the Lebanese state and its institutions appear to be balancing clear US pressure toward disarming Hezbollah against the need to preserve army unity and prevent internal division, as reflected in the defense minister's warnings and the army commander's positions on one hand, and the Lebanese Forces and their allies' demands for implementation on the other. Intersecting with this are security files such as the Jurd cell, al-Alwani's killing and smuggling across the Syrian border, files that test the state's ability to impose its authority and place Hezbollah before direct or indirect responsibilities, and may become instruments of political and judicial pressure. Externally, the US-French track regarding a UNIFIL successor appears unresolved, with divergence over verification mechanisms and international frameworks, increasing uncertainty about southern arrangements. Economically, IMF talks continue amid disputes over burden-sharing, while food insecurity deepens social fragility, making any security escalation more costly.
Outlook
In the near term, possible scenarios are bounded by current data: first, continued limited and intermittent Israeli military pressure in the south, with strikes and incursions aimed at establishing facts on the ground and influencing negotiations, with no indications in the news of a full-scale war. Second, continued diplomatic competition over UNIFIL's fate and post-UNIFIL arrangements, with possible alternative international formulas facing Lebanese rejection if outside the UN framework and Israeli rejection of certain roles. Third, the possibility of internal political escalation if the state moves from rhetoric to executive measures on the weapons file or security files such as the Jurd cell or the Dhahr al-Baydar explosives case, which may prompt limited escalatory responses or political mobilization by Hezbollah. Fourth, the possibility of a preliminary agreement with the IMF before the end of the week or completion of the financial gap law before March, though implementation would remain fragile amid security and social crisis.