Syria Between Israeli Pressure, Shaky Internal Security, and Regional Realignment
Bottom line
The key takeaway is that Syria simultaneously faces a strict Israeli ceiling on its security arrangements with Turkey, a domestic test of its ability to dismantle armed cells and manage accountability files, and a regional track of repositioning through Riyadh and the "Makkah Alliance." The balance among these three tracks, not any one of them alone, will determine whether the coming phase sees gradual de-escalation or intermittent escalation.
Current situation
Developments over the past 72 hours reflect a Syrian situation interlocked at three levels. On security, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office accused Damascus of accepting the deployment of Turkish forces at an airbase near Aleppo (Abu al-Duhur), describing it as a threat to Israel's security and confirming the existence of an agreed security "status quo," following strikes attributed to Israel on the airport. In parallel, Syria's Internal Security Forces announced the foiling of a Hezbollah-affiliated cell that was targeting the Homs refinery and the seizure of explosive devices, while a security headquarters in the Idlib countryside was hit by a shell with no claim of responsibility or clarification of the perpetrator. On the ground, Syrian television reported an Israeli incursion with nine vehicles in al-Hurriyah village in the northern Quneitra countryside, and artillery shelling on the outskirts of Beit Jinn in the western Damascus countryside. Politically, al-Sharaa arrived in Riyadh at the head of a high-level delegation to discuss political and security files, amid reports of Syrian deliberations over joining the "Makkah Alliance," coinciding with domestic controversy over school curriculum amendments and the arrest of a former major general on suspicion of war crimes linked to the chemical weapons file.
Analysis
The core dynamic is formed by the new Syrian authorities' attempt to stabilize a security equation with Israel that includes controlling the southern front and avoiding field changes classified as threats, which explains the Israeli reference to an agreed "status quo." Yet this understanding appears fragile, since mere deliberations over a Turkish deployment at Abu al-Duhur airbase suffice to trigger strikes and threats, meaning Syria's margin of sovereignty in its security arrangements with Ankara is constrained by the map of Israeli interests. Conversely, the foiling of a Hezbollah cell in Homs and the arrest of a former major general in the chemical file reflect a different internal track: the authorities seek to prove their ability to dismantle remaining armed structures and to court international actors through accountability, but the targeting of a security headquarters in Idlib without a claim of responsibility shows that Syria's security geography is not yet settled and that local or external actors retain the capacity to disrupt. The Riyadh visit and the "Makkah Alliance" deliberations point to a regional repositioning based on distancing Syria from the Iran axis and engaging in arrangements led by Gulf states, Turkey and Pakistan, a path Israel views as both opportunity and dilemma, since it may provide Damascus with Arab cover while opening the door to a Turkish military presence in Syria's depth. The curriculum controversy and judicial arrests add a domestic legitimacy dimension, as the new order faces identity and rights tests that could erode the political capital it needs in external negotiations.
Outlook
Available indicators suggest continued Israeli pressure at varying levels, with a higher probability of escalation if Damascus proceeds with any military arrangement with Ankara at Abu al-Duhur airbase or similar sites, potentially including further strikes or limited incursions as occurred in Quneitra. Conversely, the data do not rule out continued diplomatic work through Riyadh and the "Makkah Alliance" track as an alternative to escalation, with Syria attempting to offer guarantees that its territory will not be used against Israel. Domestically, further security operations against remaining cells are likely, along with possibly more arrests in the chemical and past-crimes files, while the possibility of renewed targeting in Idlib and its surroundings remains as long as the perpetrators' identity is unclear. The curriculum file is likely to remain a source of domestic and regional tension with limited impact on the security equation.