Situation assessment

Reports over the past 72 hours indicate that Israel has emerged from the 26th Knesset election, held on 27 October 2026, with the highest turnout since 1973 but without a clear political outcome. Partial results showed Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, winning 27 seats, while estimates for the camp led by Gadi Eisenkot varied, and Arab parties collectively won around 18-19 seats, a figure described as historic. Estimates for Netanyahu’s bloc ranged between about 50 and 59 seats depending on samples and counting percentages, and no clear bloc with 61 seats had yet emerged. The counting of double envelopes, expected to begin on Thursday, remains decisive for the final seat allocation. Netanyahu declared that his right-wing bloc had won a «clear majority» and called for a «strong national right-wing government» not dependent on Arab parties, while the opposition announced the start of the «post-Netanyahu battle» and demanded the formation of an alternative government. Meanwhile, Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen announced his party’s readiness to support an alternative government led by the opposition from outside the coalition in order to remove Netanyahu, while ruling out direct participation in any coalition. Likud accused Arab parties of «stealing the election» and demanded an investigation, while the Central Elections Committee did not establish systematic fraud, and police announced the arrest of three people in two Bedouin towns on suspicion of attempting to bribe voters. Channel 14 attributed to the Israeli president a push toward forming a Netanyahu-led government for two years in exchange for his resignation at the end of his term and a full pardon. On security, debate has intensified over a possible attack on Iran; Defense Minister Israel Katz denied differences between the military and political leadership and said Israel did not intend to attack before the election, while Axios reported that the chief of staff discussed preparations for possible attacks on Iran with the CENTCOM commander. Markets also saw sharp declines after 66 percent of votes were counted, and the Israeli military announced it fired an interceptor missile at a suspicious target in its area of operations in southern Lebanon.

The core of the picture is that the election has not produced a clear governing majority but has reproduced Netanyahu’s centrality as an actor without whom a right-wing government cannot be formed, while his camp does not yet have a comfortable majority. The rise of Arab representation to around 19 seats changed the arithmetic but does not necessarily change governance: the Joint List rules out direct participation in a coalition, and Zionist parties, including the opposition, are wary of relying directly on it. This is why several reports suggested that the increased Arab weight could in practice prolong Netanyahu’s tenure if an alternative led by Eisenkot or others cannot be built. The opposition, for its part, is trying to use the position of «mandated premier» and pressure for an alternative government with outside support from the Joint List, but this path faces two constraints: the Joint List’s refusal to join the government and right-wing parties’ refusal to cooperate with it. Likud’s accusations that Arab parties «stole the election» indicate that the coming battle will not only be over numbers but also over the legitimacy of the results, which could affect decisions by the elections committee and the Supreme Court and any party’s ability to mobilize support for a presidential mandate. Added to this are reports that the Israeli president is pushing for a two-year Netanyahu-led government in exchange for his resignation and a full pardon; if true, this reflects an attempt to settle Netanyahu’s legal and political crisis outside election logic alone. The Iran file is the second factor linking the election to security: Netanyahu presents it as an existential threat and a historic opportunity with US President Donald Trump, while the opposition accuses him of playing with the war card electorally. The official denial of a rift between the military and political leadership, contrasted with reports of the chief of staff’s opposition to public preparations and of joint preparations with CENTCOM, indicates that the Iran file is subject to political-military tension and not merely a declared dispute. Katz’s statement that no attack would be launched before the election, alongside his pledge of a strong response to any Iranian attack, leaves room for miscalculated escalation. Economically, the decline in stocks and the shekel after counting advanced reflects concern over political instability and the repercussions of confrontation with Iran.

The most likely prospect in the coming period is continued uncertainty until the double envelopes are fully counted, which could give Netanyahu’s bloc at least one additional seat or alter the bloc balance. If Netanyahu reaches 61 seats or close to it, he may seek a narrow right-wing-religious government, trying to attract defectors or secure limited outside support, but he will face the obstacle of his public refusal to rely on Arab parties. If that is not achieved, the alternative scenario is a government led by Eisenkot or another opposition candidate with outside support from the Joint List, but this remains difficult because the Joint List refuses to participate and right-wing parties refuse to cooperate with it. If deadlock persists or government formation fails, new elections remain a realistic possibility. On security, the Iran file is likely to remain present as a political and pressure tool, but a wide attack before the US midterm elections appears constrained, according to reports that Trump prefers delay, while preparations and provocations on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts continue. Economic volatility and mutual accusations over election integrity are also expected to continue, potentially affecting government formation and public confidence.