Situation Assessment: Syria Faces Israeli Escalation in the South and Multi-Dimensional Internal Tensions
Bottom line
Conclusion: Southern Syria, especially Suwayda and Daraa, remains a major flashpoint with active Israeli intervention to support the Druze and military operations, while the Syrian regime faces public anger and internal divisions. The possibility of a tacit understanding between Syria and Israel exists but is fragile, and the ideological shift in Syrian curricula may complicate long-term relations. The reader should recognize that the situation is fluid and any security incident could trigger a wider escalation.
Current situation
Over the past 72 hours, the Syrian arena has witnessed escalation in the south, with Israel expressing fear that Syrian regime proxies plan to renew attacks on the Druze in Suwayda, and conveying messages to the regime expressing displeasure at any attempt to harm the Druze. Conversely, pro-regime media accused Israel of transferring weapons, ammunition, funds, and intelligence to Druze factions in Suwayda, and reports circulated about Israeli helicopters transferring weapons to the Druze National Guard. Several Syrian areas (Daraa, Quneitra, Damascus, Homs, Idlib, Hasakah) saw wide protests against Israeli military operations, emphasizing national unity and sovereignty. In Hasakah, tension escalated between Kurds and regime supporters, with Kurds raising Israeli flags. A report also revealed an ideological shift in Syrian curricula under President Ahmed al-Sharaa towards focusing on jihad and martyrs. In other developments, an explosion was heard in Damascus and its countryside due to detonating war remnants, an Israeli force carried out bulldozing in the Jbab al-Khashab forest in Quneitra countryside, a security member was killed in an attack on a checkpoint in Daraa, and a man with disabilities was killed by Israeli fire in Daraa. Politically, Ehud Barak said there is a possible understanding between Syria and Israel, describing talk of US support for the Druze as completely wrong, while an Israeli orientalist called for arming the Druze of Suwayda and establishing a Druze state and dismantling Syria. Pages affiliated with the Syrian army published a simulation video of invading the Golan.
Analysis
These news items reflect a complex dynamic in southern Syria, where Israel and the Syrian regime exchange accusations of interference and support for local groups. Israel fears attacks on the Druze in Suwayda, prompting it to bolster support for them via arms and intelligence transfers, as claimed by pro-regime media. This Israeli support for the Druze is part of a broader Israeli strategy aimed at building alliances with minorities (Druze, Kurds) to weaken the central government, as evident from Israeli orientalist Eddie Cohen's calls to arm the Druze, establish a Druze state, and dismantle Syria. Conversely, the Syrian regime views this interference as a threat to its sovereignty and uses its media to highlight the Israeli role. However, Ehud Barak's statements about a possible understanding between Syria and Israel indicate the existence of back channels to reduce tension, despite denying US support for the Druze. The wide protests against Israeli operations express rising public anger, especially with the incident of a man with disabilities killed in Daraa, putting pressure on the regime to respond. In Hasakah, tension between Kurds and regime supporters shows that the struggle for influence in Kurdish-majority areas remains intense, and Kurds raising Israeli flags may be an attempt to draw attention or align with Israel, similar to the Druze. The ideological shift in Syrian curricula towards jihad and martyrs, under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, worries Israel and reinforces the narrative that the new Syria is hostile, as seen in the Hebrew page analysis. This shift may affect future relations with Israel and the West. Overall, factors of Israeli intervention, internal struggles for influence, and identity reshaping intersect in Syria, making the situation explosive at any moment.
Outlook
Based on current data, several scenarios can be envisioned for the coming period: (1) Continued tension with limited Israeli operations and support for the Druze, with back-channel crisis management through undeclared understandings, as Barak suggests. (2) Broader Israeli military escalation if the Druze are attacked or if Israeli forces are targeted, potentially leading to more intense popular reactions in Syria. (3) Rising internal tension in Hasakah between Kurds and the regime, especially with Israeli flags raised, which could draw external interventions. (4) Continued popular protests against Israel, possibly utilized by the opposition to pressure the regime. (5) The impact of ideological curriculum shifts on foreign relations, with growing Israeli and international concern. The most likely scenario is a continuation of the fragile situation with back-channel understandings preventing major explosion, but the risk of escalation remains due to daily incidents.