Israel Before the Election: Iran Dominates the Campaign and Tension with the Security Establishment
Bottom line
In conclusion, Israel is entering a decisive election dominated by the Iran file, with high security readiness and internal disagreements over the politicization of the threat and the timing of any confrontation. The election result is not settled, but the most important thing to watch is whether any security development before or after the vote will change the campaign's balance, and whether relations with the Trump administration will affect the formation of the next government.
Current situation
Israel is heading into the 26th Knesset election scheduled for Tuesday amid a campaign dominated by Iran and security. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he issued instructions to the Mossad and the army to work to topple the Iranian regime, described Iran as a 'wounded scorpion,' and said Israel had intelligence indications that Iran and its proxies might attack to influence the election, warning of 'disproportionate' strikes. He published an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, angering the opposition. In contrast, main challenger Gadi Eisenkot pledged to unite Israelis and form a formal commission of inquiry into the failures of October 7, and unveiled a 100-day plan for the post-Netanyahu period, with polls showing a very close race. On security, the army raised its alert level, deployed tens of thousands of soldiers on several fronts, held a drill in the north and center, and reports spoke of air defenses being activated in the Upper Galilee. Reports addressed tension between Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir over Iran, and disagreements over the timing and necessity of a possible strike. Regionally and internationally, reports said Trump advisers favored dealing with an Israeli government without Netanyahu, and that Netanyahu was pressing for more public U.S. support. Economically, Netanyahu's remarks about Israel being isolated from the world economy, preparing for sanctions and shifting to cryptocurrencies drew criticism from experts and the central bank. Domestically, an attack at Yehuda Junction killed two reserve soldiers amid security incidents and protests, and the Shin Bet took over security for Yair Golan ahead of the election. Regionally, the Israeli and Greek navies held a joint exercise in the Mediterranean, while Israeli operations in southern Syria continued according to a report.
Analysis
The news indicates that the election has become the framework in which security and foreign-policy files are being rearranged, and that the Iranian threat plays a central role in the campaign. Netanyahu is using hard-line statements and a rallying image to reinforce his security credentials against Eisenkot, who tries to counter with a message of unity and accountability over October 7. But the statements do not remain purely electoral; they interact with actual military readiness and reports of disagreements between the political level and the military command, which could raise escalation risks or weaken confidence in decision-making. The news does not provide detailed evidence of an intention by Iran or its proxies to attack, only unspecified 'intelligence indications,' which calls for caution in assessing the likelihood of an attack. The contradictory media noise about a possible strike may also be part of deception or deterrence, but it increases ambiguity for the Israeli public. At the U.S. level, Trump's public support intersects with reports that his advisers prefer a government without Netanyahu, making the bilateral relationship hostage to the election result. Economically, the rhetoric of isolation, sanctions and cryptocurrencies worries the economic establishment and reflects concerns about the consequences of a more confrontational foreign and security policy. On security, the Yehuda Junction attack and Shin Bet protection for Golan show that the election climate is tense both security-wise and politically, and that any incident could quickly become an election issue. Regionally, the exercise with Greece and operations in southern Syria indicate that Israel continues to build deterrence and monitoring arrangements beyond its borders despite U.S. pressure.
Outlook
Based on the available data, three non-exhaustive scenarios can be outlined. First, the election takes place with high turnout and produces a very close result, with difficulty forming a government and the possibility of new elections, especially if no camp wins a majority. Second, any security development before the vote, such as an attack by Iran or its proxies or a major incident, could shift the campaign toward security and deterrence and possibly strengthen Netanyahu's position or prompt a severe Israeli response, although the news does not confirm that an attack has occurred. Third, post-election options may become clearer: continuation of a Netanyahu-led government with further escalation toward Iran and tension with the Trump administration, or a government led by Eisenkot or the opposition that might reorder priorities and deal with Washington differently. In all cases, the possibility of renewed confrontation with Iran or other fronts remains according to the reports, especially with talk of preparations for an operation after the U.S. congressional elections in November. Economically, if the rhetoric of isolation and sanctions continues, it may increase pressure on the central bank and markets.