Situation assessment

News over the past 72 hours reflects simultaneous Israeli escalation in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. In Gaza, the Israeli military announced the assassination of Alaa Ibrahim Nimr Irshi of Hamas and Karim Riad Hassan Abu Bataihan of Islamic Jihad, alleging their involvement in transferring millions of shekels from Iran and Turkey to the two groups’ military wings. Airstrikes and drones targeted the Islamic University, Mawasi Khan Younis, Tal al-Hawa, and scattered areas, causing deaths and injuries, including seven martyrs in separate strikes. In the West Bank, the army, Border Police, and Shin Bet conducted a wide operation covering about 40 villages and 400 sites, focused on what it described as hot spots linked to Hamas. Hebron witnessed a complete shutdown, with raids on and closure of the homes of the perpetrators of the Hebron operation ahead of their demolition, and a crisis cell was formed. Economically, the Hebron governor warned that about 2,500 facilities are at risk of collapse due to the siege. Israel announced the closure of all land crossings in the West Bank on election day, set for 27 October. Politically, Smotrich called for a comprehensive campaign in the West Bank «as in Gaza and Lebanon», Hamas described the Hebron operation as a natural and legitimate response, Turkey’s foreign minister criticized the massacres in Gaza, and a U.S. report warned of entrenching a long-term Israeli occupation.

The data indicate that Israel is managing military and security pressure across multiple fronts, with a clear priority on targeting Hamas and Islamic Jihad capabilities in Gaza, including commanders and alleged funding networks, in an effort to impede military reconstruction. In the West Bank, the wide operation goes beyond pursuing specific cells to imposing security and economic realities in population centers, especially Hebron, through closures, raids, and home-demolition measures, deepening pressure on residents and intersecting with escalating political rhetoric such as Smotrich’s call for a comprehensive campaign. Closing the crossings on election day reflects an Israeli security priority at the expense of civilian movement, while the Hebron governor’s warning that 2,500 facilities could collapse indicates that the economic impact of the siege is being framed as a broad social threat. Conversely, Hamas frames the Hebron operation as a response to what it calls occupation crimes, reflecting the continuing action-reaction dynamic. Internationally, the available texts show Turkish criticism and a warning U.S. report, but no practical measures or policy change. It should be noted that the funding-transfer allegations appeared in an Israeli military announcement without independent confirmation in the provided news, and the source and full content of the U.S. report were not clear.

Based on the available data, there are no indications of an imminent de-escalation. The scenario most consistent with the news is continued focused Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, with possible further targeting of commanders and networks believed linked to Hamas and Islamic Jihad. In the West Bank, wide security operations are likely to continue, especially in Hebron and its surroundings, alongside closures, raids, and demolitions, and this may intensify around the 27 October election date. Economically, conditions in Hebron are likely to keep deteriorating if restrictions are not lifted, with growing warnings of facility collapse. Internationally, condemnations and warnings may recur, but the data do not indicate practical pressure that would change the course of operations in the near term. The possibility of Palestinian responses or local escalation also remains given continued operations and assassinations, though the news does not specify their scale or timing.