Situation Assessment: Gaza Between Assassinations, Hamas Capability Rebuilding, and Growing Humanitarian Collapse
Bottom line
The key conclusion is that Israeli assassinations have not eliminated Hamas's capabilities but have pushed it to reposition and adapt, while humanitarian collapse deepens in Gaza and expansionist measures continue in the West Bank. The most dangerous aspect is the absence of a sustainable political horizon, which makes the ceasefire fragile and escalation possible, with rising humanitarian and security costs.
Current situation
Reports over the past 72 hours indicate that the Gaza Strip continues to witness repeated Israeli strikes by drones and warplanes, targeting leaders of Hamas and the Popular Resistance Committees as well as other individuals, in addition to homes, shelters, and electric bicycles, with deaths and injuries. At the same time, an Israeli report observed a gradual return of Hamas capabilities through public armed appearances, the transfer of weapons to civilian areas, and tunnel rehabilitation, while Israeli officials confirmed that the disarmament of the movement has not been achieved. Humanitarian conditions are deteriorating: Gaza's Health Ministry announced the depletion of oils needed to operate hospital generators, and the ICRC Director-General called on the international community to assume its responsibilities regarding the humanitarian situation. In the West Bank, Ben Gvir approved adding 11 settlements to areas eligible for firearm licenses, while the US State Department stated it does not support Israeli annexation of the West Bank.
Analysis
The reports show that Israel continues a strategy of focused strikes and assassinations against Hamas leaders, its security apparatus, and other factions, aiming to prevent capability rebuilding and to close operational circles linked to past attacks. However, the Israeli security report on Hamas's renewed armed presence, tunnel rehabilitation, and transfer of weapons to civilian areas indicates that military pressure has not prevented the movement from adapting and rearranging its capabilities, creating a cycle of attrition and assassinations in exchange for repositioning. The continuation of strikes, including against homes and shelters, alongside the hospital fuel crisis, increases the humanitarian cost and undermines any sustainable stability. In this context, accusations of collaboration with the Shin Bet in the assassination of Fouad Al-Ghoul reflect internal security tensions and social suspicion in Gaza. In the West Bank, the decision to expand firearm licenses in settlements, set against the US position rejecting annexation, reflects a continuing Israeli expansionist trajectory and a political divergence with Washington that may remain limited in practical effect. Overall, ceasefire understandings appear fragile, as reports refer to violations and strikes near the Yellow Line, meaning the situation is not a transition to a stable settlement but rather management of low-intensity conflict with risks of escalation.
Outlook
In the near term, the most likely scenario is a continuation of focused Israeli strikes and assassinations, with Hamas attempting to rebuild its capabilities and security apparatus, without a clear military resolution. If a major security incident occurs or accusations of ceasefire violations expand, the possibility of a broader escalation remains. On the humanitarian level, hospital conditions are likely to deteriorate if sufficient quantities of oils and fuel are not allowed in, amid international pressure that may remain limited unless accompanied by practical arrangements. In the West Bank, decisions to expand firearm licenses in settlements may increase tensions, while the practical effect of the US position rejecting annexation remains uncertain.