Situation assessment

Over the past 72 hours, the Palestinian arena has witnessed concurrent escalation in Gaza and the West Bank. In Gaza, Israel continued strikes and targeted killings against figures described as Hamas members, including Muhammad Shashaa and Abd al-Jawad Jouda, with reports that Ali al-Amoudi, considered Hamas’s leader in Gaza, was injured. The Israeli army announced the killing of four Hamas operatives and described this as occurring in violation of the ceasefire, while warning residents against approaching the “yellow line.” The civilian toll continued to rise, with the Gaza Ministry of Health announcing the burial of 75 martyrs whose remains were recovered from the Daraj neighborhood, and Civil Defense estimating that about 8,000 bodies remain under the rubble. Civilians were also killed and injured in various strikes, including three students and five people wounded by Israeli army fire at and around Nasser Medical Complex. In the West Bank, settler violence escalated during the olive harvest, with attacks on homes, farmers and olive trees in multiple areas, notably Taybeh, Beit Ummar, Beit Furik, Deir Jarir and Ma’in. These included an attack on an American photographer working for The Washington Post and on European diplomats and a French mayor in Taybeh, prompting European, British, American and French condemnations. Israeli police announced the arrest of ten people, while Netanyahu’s office spoke of a “smear campaign,” and Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar condemned the attack by “Israeli rioters” but criticized European consulates for not coordinating the visit with the army. On the internal Palestinian track, Fatah was reported to have presented Hamas with a paper stipulating the principle of one weapon and one law and recognition of the PLO as the sole legitimate representative, while the Russian foreign minister said the parties remain very far from a solution establishing an independent Palestinian state.

The news reflects a dual dynamic: in Gaza, Israel is pursuing a policy of targeting and assassinating figures and commanders attributed to Hamas, while asserting that these operations respond to ceasefire violations. This keeps the ceasefire fragile and places Hamas under direct security pressure, but it also expands the circle of civilian casualties and confirms the persistence of the humanitarian crisis, as shown by Civil Defense figures on bodies under the rubble and by the burial of martyrs. In the West Bank, settler violence appears linked to the olive harvest and to weak oversight or security coordination, and it has become an international issue after the targeting of an American journalist and European diplomats. European, British, American and French condemnations place Israel under diplomatic pressure, but Israel’s official response—ranging from the arrest of ten people to Netanyahu’s office speaking of a “smear campaign” and criticizing European consulates—indicates an attempt to contain the crisis without a fundamental change in West Bank policies. Internally, Fatah’s paper to Hamas suggests a continued search for a joint national formula on weapons and representational legitimacy, but the absence of an announced agreement shows that differences remain unresolved. Regionally, Russia’s pessimistic position on a Palestinian state and the Houthi letter to Sinwar show that the Palestinian issue remains central to regional discourse, without the available news translating into tangible change on the ground.

In the near term, Israeli strikes and targeting operations in Gaza are likely to continue, with the ceasefire remaining vulnerable to collapse or erosion, especially given repeated Israeli warnings and mutual accusations of violations. In the West Bank, attacks on farmers and Palestinian homes are likely to continue during the olive harvest, and incidents targeting foreigners and diplomats may recur, potentially widening international pressure on Israel. However, the available news does not point to concrete punitive international measures, but rather to condemnations and calls for action. Internally, the Fatah-Hamas dialogue may move toward limited understandings or remain suspended because of disagreement over weapons and representational legitimacy. In the absence of indicators of a change in the field equation, the humanitarian priority in Gaza will remain the most urgent.