Situation assessment

Over the past 72 hours, Israel has entered a new government-formation phase after the elections. President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot with forming the government after he received recommendations from 67 MKs against 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot said 74 MKs do not trust the outgoing government and called for a national emergency government based on principles including recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, commitment to military service, and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist movement. The Arab Joint List indicated that his government would be a minority government and said it did not request to join it, while the United Arab List said it would support him even without an agreement. Avigdor Liberman rejected a government relying on Arab parties. At the same time, Likud is preparing to challenge the election results partially or fully, Ben-Gvir spoke of election theft, and the Shin Bet is continuing a security investigation into millions of shekels allegedly directed at disrupting the elections. On security, Iran dominated: Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Israel has not finished with Iran and will not accept a renewed nuclear threat; reports spoke of a Mossad-IDF dispute over timing for action against Iran and of a pre-election plan to strike Iran that was blocked by security objections and US intervention. This coincided with the presence of US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport, Israeli drills for scenarios of an attack or Iranian retaliation, a warning to Hezbollah of severe strikes if it joins an Iranian attack, and continued operations by Division 91 in southern Lebanon under the ceasefire. In the background, Trump announced halting $4 billion in security aid this year; Netanyahu's office said the relationship had shifted from aid to partnership, while US Ambassador Mike Huckabee said the timing of the halt was unclear and that a decision to resume attacks on Iran had probably not been taken.

The political and security tracks in Israel are intertwined in an unusual way. Eisenkot's mandate reflects an electoral majority opposed to Netanyahu, but it does not mean a stable 61-member coalition; it points to a minority government relying on external support from Arab parties, which raises Liberman's objections and weakens the government's ability to advance sensitive issues such as the Haredi conscription law. Likud's readiness to challenge the results, Ben-Gvir's talk of election theft, and the Shin Bet investigation into funding to disrupt elections all indicate that the legitimacy of the political transition will remain contested, potentially slowing government formation or pushing Herzog toward a backup plan for a unity government. On Iran, a split appears within the security establishment: a more escalatory approach by the Mossad and Netanyahu, and a more cautious approach by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir out of concern that an attack during the election period could be exploited politically or harm the operation's legitimacy. The report on the plan blocked before the elections shows that Washington remains the decisive gatekeeper for any broad military action, while the refueling aircraft, drills, and warnings to Tehran and Hezbollah reflect Israeli preparation for multiple scenarios. At the same time, the halt in US aid and bipartisan scrutiny in Washington increase constraints on Israel, despite Netanyahu's attempt to reframe the relationship as a partnership. The Lebanese front currently remains constrained under the ceasefire, but the warning against Hezbollah joining an Iranian attack and the Israeli offensive plan against it make Lebanon part of any potential regional escalation, not a separate track.

Based on current data, three paths are possible. First, Eisenkot succeeds in forming a national emergency government or a minority government supported from outside, prioritizing domestic legitimacy, the conscription law, and relations with Washington, while continuing pressure and deterrence toward Iran without necessarily reaching an immediate decision. Second, negotiations stall over Haredi conscription, the role of Arab parties, Liberman's reservations, and Likud's challenge, prompting Herzog to use a backup plan for a unity government or pushing Israel toward new elections, prolonging a transitional government and weakening its ability to make major security decisions. Third, Washington decides on a limited or intensive military operation against Iran, a decision not yet taken according to the US ambassador; if it occurs, Israel would be a party or directly affected, with the risk of Hezbollah joining and opening a Lebanese front that pushes Israel to implement its offensive plans. If no operation occurs, continued pressure, threats, and diplomacy are more likely, including talk of Qatari mediation to discuss Iran's nuclear file.