Situation assessment

News over the past 72 hours reflects two parallel tracks in Palestine. On the political track, Axios quoted a US official as saying that the Gaza reconstruction plan will not begin until verified progress is achieved on Hamas disarmament; it also reported that President Donald Trump wants his Gaza peace plan implemented regardless of whether Netanyahu remains in power, and that he asked Netanyahu in a phone call to take steps to implement the plan. On the humanitarian track, the Gaza Strip has seen a sharp deterioration after heavy rains flooded thousands of tents, with the mayor of Gaza confirming that no places are available to relocate displaced people, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs warning that emergency supply stocks are insufficient to meet the needs of those affected. The Palestinian Ministry of Health, the Gaza municipality, and Civil Defense called for urgent intervention, while Hamas held the occupation and the "Peace Council" responsible for the failure to bring aid into Gaza and demanded that mediators and guarantors pressure Israel to implement the humanitarian protocol. On the security level, incidents continued in Gaza and the West Bank, including an Israeli drone strike that killed two people in southern Gaza, the death of a Hamas military-wing commander from his wounds, Israeli security moves in the West Bank, a ramming attempt near Ma'ale Adumim, a heightened alert in Hebron, attacks on olive pickers in Salfit, and a Palestinian diplomatic push at the United Nations against the Israeli presence in the West Bank.

The news shows that Gaza is currently being managed through an explicit political link between reconstruction and Hamas disarmament, a link that gives Washington leverage over Hamas but postpones broad humanitarian response until an incomplete political-security condition is met. At the same time, Hamas is trying to use the humanitarian catastrophe to pressure mediators, guarantors, and the "Peace Council," and to present Israel as primarily responsible for the failure to bring in aid and implement the humanitarian protocol. This points to a gap between the existence of a peace plan and declared understandings and protocols on the one hand, and the absence of concrete implementation mechanisms on the ground on the other. As for the humanitarian situation, rains and floods, the lack of shelter space, and insufficient emergency stock combine to create growing pressure on international actors, with local warnings of continued suffering and displaced people sleeping in the open. In the West Bank, Palestinian diplomatic moves at the United Nations against settlements and the Israeli presence coincide with continued Israeli security operations, arrests, attacks on olive pickers, and a ramming attempt near a settlement, reflecting the interconnection between the diplomatic track and rising field tension. The continuation of strikes and the death of a Hamas commander also indicate that fragile security arrangements can be quickly affected by any incident, complicating the implementation of any peace or reconstruction plan.

Based on current data, the reconstruction plan appears likely to remain suspended or limited in the near term unless verifiable progress is recorded on Hamas disarmament, a condition that is difficult to achieve quickly amid continued disputes and security incidents. If rains and winter conditions continue, the shelter and emergency-needs crisis is likely to worsen, with further collapses, deaths, and the need for urgent international intervention. Politically, Hamas may continue pressing mediators and guarantors to implement the humanitarian protocol, while Israel may continue linking humanitarian facilitation to security arrangements. In the West Bank, tension is likely to persist around Israeli operations, settlements, and harvest seasons, with Palestinian diplomatic escalation at the United Nations potentially increasing Israel's international isolation but not immediately changing policies on the ground. Any new security incident in Gaza or the West Bank could also weaken confidence in any implementation track.